In a previous whitepaper, we described research that shows TV negatively affects family formation and family intactness. Here we want to report on a new, similar study that shows Western television contributes to declining fertility rates.
In “Television Role Models and Fertility—Evidence from a Natural Experiment” two German econometricians looked at the effect of Western German programming on East German family formation over the Cold War.
During the first years of the Cold War, East Germany (GDR) was rather insular. For the purpose of the study it isn’t important if the GDR was behind a physical wall; what matters is that Western TV reception was rigorously streng verboten (forbidden): There were campaigns to tear down West-facing antennae found on East German homes.
With the arrival of the Honecker government in 1971, things changed. Détente arrived. With it came Western TV showing East Germans the ‘Western family ideal’: no kids.
Well, not all of East Germany saw this change. Dresden was a black-out zone – not because Westerners didn’t want to reach it, but because of physics: The signal didn’t propagate all the way over there.
Throughout these changes, East German TV was comparatively pro-child. Though women were still expected to be part of the economic-industrial machine, family was portrayed in a deliberately positive light.
June 18, 2015
By Henry Potrykus
So, we have a natural experiment:
Our German econometricians use the fact that Western TV “turned on” in the GDR in the 1970s, and that it never really got to Dresden, to show that Western TV reduced family size wherever it went.
Although their study is not (yet) as complete as the one we described in the whitepaper, it is another rather clear indicator that our role models out West affect who we become – or don’t become, in this case. They affect us negatively when it comes to the fundamental ordering unit of society: the family.
With these important empirical studies, perhaps that old debate over whether programming affects us (negatively) is closer to settled. Since there is still no shortage of zero-population growth-types around, whether this effect is pejorative may still be controversial. One thing is sure: with the incipient decline of European nations (including Germany), fewer and fewer of their people will hold the opposing view. Double entendre entirely intended.